Virbac Paprec 3 and MAPFRE continue to have very simple, straightforward conditions as the high pressure they are with moves east with them. That means the duo should reach the next ice gate without having had to make any manoeuvres. MAPFRE are now only 25 miles behind in second place, and all eyes are on this race for first place.

There are problems for Renault ZE Sailing Team, who could end up in no man’s land – stuck between the low pressure train which is too far to their south and the arrival of the new pressure which will come from the north. The southerly option is too far from them, requiring them to get down to 55 degrees south. Hence, it looks like they will head north and get some favourable benefit as the tropical cyclone Atu passes behind them and increases the northerly wind circulation.

Neutrogena and Mirabaud are a little better off. They will have some short term discomfort from Atu, but they will have a wind angle around 100 degrees which should be manageable.

The key question for Groupe Bel and Estrella Damm is timing. They are heading east towards this very active system, but they will then need to make some choices about what do to next. If they try to get north of it and it’s moving south slower than expected, they either sail more miles or they spend more time in the worst of the weather. They have at least 24 hours to plan their strategy.

Hugo Boss were approaching Wellington around 11:00 UTC this morning, while GAES Centros Auditivos are due around 17:00 UTC.

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