The ridge of high pressure that has kept France and Spain almost cloud-free for the last week has edged north a little in the last 12 hours, over southeast England. This will serve to make the breeze even more difficult to predict, at least until the sea breezes – expected to be very strong today in the heat – fill in.

Until that time, it’s variable Force 3 winds or less. At 0800 this morning, the wind on the south coast was in the east-northeast, between 0-6 knots. The Isle of Wight took a little rain overnight and there are still thundery showers and plenty of fog along the coasts, some of which will persist in the less breezy areas.

Around midday, when the temperatures start to soar, mini-squalls could cause some trouble and there’s a strong chance of some heavy thundery showers in the southeast, under the ridge of high pressure.

Elsewhere, there is a series of shallow lows running along a slow-moving front stretching from southern Wales to northeast England, and that will gradually drag the variable Force 3 breeze into the north and beef it up a little on the western coast.

The best breeze is over Scotland. It will be variable Force 3-4, before settling into the southeast as a filling low (998 at present) south of Iceland makes its presence felt.