Past Vendée Globe races have seen the fleet get an absolute pasting in the early days, thanks to the first hurdle of crossing the Bay of Biscay in November.

But this year looks set to be a gentler introduction for the 40 solo skippers, with likely just  5-10 knots at the start, though there will still be some tough strategic decisions early on. IMOCA co-skipper Will Harris shares his expert analysis of the forecast.

Harris is a key part of Boris Herrmann’s Malizia-Explorer team, and has been co-skipper for the IMOCA crewed and double-handed races. For the Vendée Globe he is ‘reserve’ skipper (all the solo skippers have nominated an emergency stand-in), and part of the meteorology team working with Herrmann ahead of this year’s round the world race.

While he says he’s been looking at general trends – such as where different systems are and how they’ve tracking – all week, it’s only in the final few days that he began running routings in detail with any degree of confidence.

Weather updates at the final skippers’ briefing ahead of the 2024 Vendée Globe

High pressure Vendée Globe start

Currently the forecast is for light winds on start day, Harris explains. “It’s a high pressure situation. We’ve had this massive high pressure over Western Europe the last two or three weeks – bringing nice sun some days, very foggy, but basically not much wind or an offshore wind a lot of the time.

“And we’re going to have that all the way to the start and going into the middle of next week. So basically, for the start day, we’re going to be right in the centre of the high pressure.

“There are a few little occluded fronts and things, which is going to make it very variable. We’re not really sure what direction the wind is going to come from, but we’re basically looking to pick up a north-easterly flow going into Monday. That’s going to take the boats around Finistère, where it will have nicely accelerated around that corner.

“So the first 18 hours is where we’ll see the first differences between the boats, as there’s some strategy calls to make about how to get through the light winds. But the differences won’t be too huge in the fleet. I think it’s going to be later on, Thursday or Friday, where they’re going to have to start choosing how to deal with the low pressures that are disturbing the tradewinds.”

The first night is expected to see light conditions. Photo: Antoine Auriol/Malizia/VG2024

These low pressure systems are further south than usual. “There are two or three [lows] sitting right over the Azores, which is normally where the high pressure is,” explains Harris. “And that’s basically disturbing the trade winds.

“So you’ve got to choose: do I try and stick to the African Coast and use what’s left to the tradewinds? Or do I punch straight through this light wind and see if I can get a better VMG to end up with a nice reaching angle towards the Equator?

“And so that’s the two main points that are there from this [early forecast]. The first 18 hours being very difficult and uncertain, and then later on this much bigger strategy call and the bigger split. But we’re going to just have to see how the forecast develops with that – it’ll probably be a call that [the skippers] have to make later on in the race.”

Will Harris co-skippering with Boris Herrmann on Malizia-SeaExplorer during the double-handed IMOCA Le Défi Azimut race.

Finistère acceleration zone

Although light winds and flat seas dominate, the fleet could see some stronger conditions around Finistère. “Finistère is a big acceleration, a big bit of breeze. There’s definitely some miles to be made there, and choosing whether you gybe inside or outside the TSS, because it’s basically a big curve.

“If you come to the inside of the curve, you get a better shift. But equally, it’s more manoeuvres, more risk as well. Especially around that corner, they could see 30 knots going into Tuesday and Wednesday.

“So you want to keep it simple on that first night and not do 10 manoeuvres and totally exhaust yourself.”

After Finistère, Harris thinks the fleet could compress back up again. “The bit that’s interesting [in these early forecasts] is that around Finistère, you’ve got a big acceleration, and then they’ll get spat out into not much wind. So everyone will come flying around that corner and then slow down a bit.

“Especially if it’s still light in the Bay of Biscay, they’ll suddenly go from 10 knots to foiling at 25, and they can jump ahead. But then later on, that could not work out like that.”

Sea state around Finistère is also forecast to change, which Harris says could benefit Herrmann on Malizia. “There’s a bit of a west swell coming in, which is going against the downwind conditions. It could make it a bit choppy and messy – but that favours us, really. We love that stuff. The messier the sea state, the better for us.

Boris Herrmann’s Malizia-SeaExplorer is known to favour strong winds and larger sea states. Photo: Jean-Marie Liot/Malizia/VG2024

“Then once they’ve got to that point, I think they’ll start really looking, okay, how am I going to get south? Am I going to try and stick a bit to the west, go close to the Azores and pass through the low pressures? Or am I going to sneak down the African Coast and go through the Canary Islands and push along the coast there?”

Potential splits in the Vendée fleet

Light downwind conditions could see the fleet making some big splits and different tactical choices.

“With VMG angles, you can really split up the fleet quickly. It only takes one boat to decide to gybe 10 miles later, which is very typical in these boats. You’re solo – trying to cover each and every gybe is a lot of work. So they’re going to have to stick to their own guns a bit, but maybe one boat gybes 10 miles later and suddenly gains 100 miles,” Harris explains.

“The top guys – Charlie [Dalin, Macif], Thomas [Ruyant, Vulnerable], Nico [Lunven, Holcim-PRB], and Yoann [Richomme, Paprec Arkéa] – they’re all going to be really on top of their gybes and making those calls. And Biotherm as well. I think Paul [Meilhat]’s boat is very good for this flat water VMG downwind stuff.

“But they still might have slightly different ideas of how they’re going to do it, and it could open things up.”

Light winds in the early stages could be demanding with manoeuvres and sail changes – Paul Meihat’s Biotherm is among the boats the may revel in the lighter airs forecast at the start.

The light winds could also play into the hands of some of the older designs. “The conditions in the first hours and days could allow boats with straight daggerboards to be in the match,” Louis Burton, skipper of Bureau Vallée pointed out.

Skippers’ relief

Though there is a general feeling of relief among the teams that this edition looks unlikely to see boat-breaking conditions in Biscay, light winds – and particularly poor visibility with fog – will bring its own challenge.

“I would have preferred to have a bit more wind and I think everyone is a bit nervous about the fog,” Medallia skipper Pip Hare said after the final skippers’ briefing. “To be honest all anyone cares about is getting away safely.”

There will be some key decisions for the skippers to make as the IMOCAs approach the tradewinds, with low pressure currently forecast around the Azores. Photo: Antoine Auriol/Malizia/VG2024

“Everyone’s always going to be happy that we’re not starting in 35 knots in the middle of a front,” says Harris. “But I think everyone’s keeping their fingers crossed there’s going to be at least 10 knots or so – it’s looking very light on some of the forecasts.

“What’s really hard is that first night. In lots of transitions, you can really psych yourself out and think: ‘Oh, I’m losing miles. This boat’s doing 10 knots, I’m only doing 2’.

“You’ve just got to remember, it’s a round the world race. It’s not going to come down to that. Keep the boat in one piece and don’t try and gain all your miles back at Finistère and push the boat too hard.

“Your biggest danger is yourself, really, on the first week.”

For more coverage of the Vendée Globe check out the Yachting World YouTube channel which has exclusive interviews with the skippers and IMOCA boat tours.